Wallet profile

Imaginary-Increase

0xd0e6e1a381ea1e9a3a6cdea7e3fb4ef938f99b21

activity 34/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

34/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

75

Open notional

$0.24

Total PnL

$-3.2K

Realised

$-122.86

Win rate

8%

74 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 75

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.09Aug 19, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.40Aug 18, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$13.56Aug 17, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$48.65Aug 16, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$16.17Aug 15, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$15.58Aug 14, 00:35 UTC
  • REWARD$2.99Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$7.13Aug 7, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.36Aug 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$17.06Aug 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$7.16Aug 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$37.27Aug 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$37.22Aug 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$5.59Aug 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$14.54Jul 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$23.52Jul 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$40.48Jul 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$14.83Jul 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.14Jul 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$5.05Jul 24, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

46/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

8% win rate over 74 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
review

26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.

Resolved-only track record
pass

74 closed markets, 8% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity64 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry4 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk59 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
26
Avg trade size
$58.26
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jul 21, 12:20 UTC
Last active
Aug 19, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample
74 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 23:19:27 UTC·src:Polymarket Data