Aching-Caftan
0xd0e9b57a1fed39a35754c93e706947f668dbafcb
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-37.09
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
6150 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-6.15
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
2153 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-149.81
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
1133 shares @ 46.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-522.78
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
267 shares @ 40.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-108.82
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
241 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-86.83
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
223 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
222 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-126.32
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$75.66Jul 17, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$55.20Jul 17, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$25.16Jul 17, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$25.17Jul 17, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$34.63Jul 17, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$103.57Jul 17, 06:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$138.60Jul 17, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$72.45Jul 17, 06:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$65.16Jul 17, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$25.66Jul 17, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$25.93Jul 17, 06:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$56.02Jul 17, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$25.97Jul 17, 06:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$23.88Jul 17, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$25.86Jul 17, 06:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$26.44Jul 17, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.30Jul 17, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$0.90Jul 17, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.20Jul 17, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.30Jul 17, 06:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $24.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 09:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 06:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.