Ugly-Rim-Dependent
0xd11a3b05bf9b081749baefb967f42d12959c5ffd
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$39.61
Total PnL
$-400.33
Realised
$-22.69
Win rate
7%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 56.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$37.40
$15.00
- YES
Will LAB reach $22 before 2027?
32 shares @ 23.5¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.21
$-5.22
- NO
Will LAB dip to $8 before 2027?
218 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-14.84
- NO
Will LAB dip to $6 before 2027?
190 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-12.18
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?
154 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-24.62
- YES
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?
140 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.50
- YES
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June?
139 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.33
- YES
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?
116 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-19.37
- NO
Will SoFi (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?
100 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-16.66
- NO
Will "Gus" - A Mounted Tyrannosaurus Rex Skeleton sell for at least $35m at auction?
80 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-32.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill LAB reach $22 before 2027?$2.36Aug 12, 15:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $52B?$91.00Jul 30, 22:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $58B?$15.00Jul 30, 22:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $8B?$70.00Jul 30, 22:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) Q3 Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue be above $8.5B?$5.51Jul 30, 22:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) Q3 Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue be above $7.5B?$47.54Jul 30, 22:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) Q3 Services revenue be above $32.5B?$10.00Jul 30, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings?$30.00Jul 29, 22:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta (META) beat quarterly earnings?$90.00Jul 29, 22:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seagate (STX) Q4 hard drive exabyte shipments be above 210?$99.80Jul 28, 22:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 3000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$59.94Jul 22, 00:09 UTC
- TRADESELLMicrosoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 40%-42%?$26.00Jul 21, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $58B?$14.40Jul 20, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLDanaher (DHR) Q2 non-GAAP core revenue growth 1.5%-3%?$2.90Jul 19, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Seagate (STX) Q4 hard drive exabyte shipments be above 210?$52.68Jul 19, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$15.38Jul 19, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$2.32Jul 19, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$7.21Jul 19, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$8.80Jul 19, 12:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.48Jul 18, 23:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
46 closed markets, 7% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $22.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 04:53 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 15:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.