Wary-Briefing
0xd11a69dfa62cfe5b03807f142242d61e9860e1dd
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
58
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-658.57
Realised
$84.59
Win rate
100%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 58- YES
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
12989 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-80.66
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 17?
6459 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-9.04
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 16?
4973 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-7.96
- YES
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 15?
1721 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-5.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 6?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Weapons be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
763 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?
633 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-113.09
- YES
Will “The Woman in Cabin 10” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 4 2025)
531 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.66
- YES
Will Crin Antonescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMAndrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor$88.00Jan 1, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "My Secret Santa" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 16, 2025)$3.20Dec 14, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "My Secret Santa" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 16, 2025)$4.30Dec 14, 16:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?$41.67Dec 8, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 8AM ET$2.40Dec 7, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 8AM ET$3.60Dec 7, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 8AM ET$2.40Dec 7, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sydney Sweeney apologize for her jeans ad in 2025?$2.12Dec 7, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?$30.00Dec 7, 06:41 UTC
- TRADESELLLighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$41.06Dec 7, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-7 be between 18,000,000 and 20,000,000?$5.46Dec 1, 10:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ordinary by Alex Warren be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?$0.69Dec 1, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ordinary by Alex Warren be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?$0.68Dec 1, 02:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ordinary by Alex Warren be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?$0.63Nov 30, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-7 be between 18,000,000 and 20,000,000?$11.55Nov 27, 23:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?$0.00Nov 27, 10:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lilo and Stitch be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?$14.31Nov 27, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYLighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$65.00Nov 24, 22:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CZ return to Binance by December 31?$65.39Nov 24, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYLighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$8.00Nov 24, 22:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $11.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 14, 19:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 1, 01:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.