Demanding-City
0xd12f443b6a45225ae65d519a4bdef568d29ce85a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
142
Open notional
$15.3K
Total PnL
$1.7K
Realised
$619.98
Win rate
92%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 142- NO
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?
5702 shares @ 49.4¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.6K
$802.18
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?
3320 shares @ 83.6¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.4K
$-367.24
- NO
Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
2011 shares @ 75.8¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.0K
$432.07
- NO
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?
1362 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.3K
$20.43
- NO
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?
751 shares @ 68.6¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$567.25
$51.76
- NO
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?
593 shares @ 84.7¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$545.98
$43.56
- NO
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $82.5B by July 31?
453 shares @ 50.6¢·now 98.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$443.56
$214.35
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of July 2026?
369 shares @ 96.6¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$366.08
$9.26
- NO
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by July 31?
293 shares @ 96.9¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$281.21
$-2.70
- YES
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
425 shares @ 53.4¢·now 61.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$261.27
$34.39
Recent activity
- TRADESELLNo listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027$2.37Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?$1.2KJul 28, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?$9.62Jul 28, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.12Jul 28, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$2.37Jul 28, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.26Jul 28, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$1.09Jul 28, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 19:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$13.09Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.17Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$39.68Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.52Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$39.27Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.51Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.86Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$65.87Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.96Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$73.50Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.08Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.52Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
52 closed markets, 92% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $100.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 07:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.