Reflecting-Hardhat
0xd1720577d047520bf5c22d2a062e89b4f7ab956a
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$205.65
Total PnL
$-405.35
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?
156 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$156.17
$56.17
- YES
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?
104 shares @ 48.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$49.48
$-0.52
- NO
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
773 shares @ 15.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
537 shares @ 55.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
200 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
195 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026?
143 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?
56 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?
43 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?
26 shares @ 37.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?$50.78Jun 13, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland win on 2026-06-13?$101.08Jun 13, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$198.18Jun 13, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$100.58Jun 11, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?$300.00Feb 16, 17:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?$400.86Feb 16, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?$335.97Feb 13, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?$60.00Feb 11, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?$42.84Feb 8, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?$201.00Feb 6, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?$300.00Feb 2, 07:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?$592.73Feb 2, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?$60.00Jan 30, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?$2.00Jan 27, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?$2.00Jan 27, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 27, 2026?$2.00Jan 27, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?$350.00Jan 25, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$677.40Jan 25, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$253.59Jan 23, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?$10.00Jan 21, 21:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $223.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 14, 22:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 15:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.