Woeful-Spyglass
0xd17a407b735143bd18f85f6cbf01f7e49289b840
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$294.22
Total PnL
$-106.38
Realised
$-0.60
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will 250 to 279 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
71 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$70.24
$0.24
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
57 shares @ 88.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$54.74
$4.74
- NO
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?
30 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$29.98
$-0.02
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
31 shares @ 96.4¢·now 95.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$29.80
$-0.20
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?
26 shares @ 97.6¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$24.96
$-0.04
- NO
Will fewer than 40 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?
31 shares @ 96.2¢·now 78.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$24.32
$-5.68
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 89.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$21.90
$1.90
- NO
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$20.22
$0.22
- NO
Will 280 to 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
20 shares @ 99.0¢·now 89.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$18.04
$-1.96
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?
108 shares @ 92.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?$30.02Aug 8, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 40 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?$30.06Aug 8, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 7?$60.42Aug 7, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?$25.04Aug 7, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$30.04Aug 7, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$50.00Aug 7, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 7?$60.02Aug 7, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?$21.04Aug 7, 15:20 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$21.74Aug 4, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$20.28Aug 1, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$20.83Jul 31, 23:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$30.43Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in July?$20.66Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$20.43Jul 31, 22:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 25?$13.13Jul 25, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 25?$13.01Jul 25, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$30.02Jul 21, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$20.03Jul 21, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 115m?$10.05Jul 20, 21:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 130m and 135m?$21.34Jul 20, 21:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $25.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 10:42 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 8, 09:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.