Tough-Ephemeris
0xd1800f4dbd27e6682b4fe366e95d536e36c90ce7
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
2
Open notional
$86.69
Total PnL
$0.12
Realised
$-0.01
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 27?$37.58Jun 24, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in June?$49.00Jun 24, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $120 on May 31?$13.01Jun 24, 13:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?$35.10Jun 24, 13:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on May 29?$57.23Jun 24, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $120 on May 31?$13.00May 28, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on May 29?$57.01May 28, 09:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 25?$45.27May 28, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 25?$45.22May 23, 10:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $130 May 11-17?$20.83May 23, 10:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on May 14?$40.04May 23, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on May 14?$40.00May 13, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $130 May 11-17?$20.77May 13, 12:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 7?$24.82May 13, 12:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 6?$35.96May 13, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 6?$35.89May 6, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 7?$24.77May 6, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?$35.01May 6, 06:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,150 Week of April 20 2026?$11.56May 6, 06:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of April 20 2026?$12.02May 6, 06:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $28.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 08:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 13:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.