Neglected-Appliance
0xd18027c3bf6333fcc23d024b1f05d98d3a79bfcb
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$94.58
Total PnL
$-68.74
Realised
$-47.95
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1564 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$14.85
$-1.14
- YES
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1903 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$12.37
$-1.78
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 65.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$9.85
$-0.15
- YES
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
831 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.23
$-1.71
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
244 shares @ 2.5¢·now 2.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.74
$-0.26
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
861 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.59
$-0.40
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
10 shares @ 60.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.20
$-0.80
- YES
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
343 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.64
$-1.36
- YES
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
280 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.50
$-2.50
- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
467 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.03
$-2.97
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$6.00Jun 20, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$10.00Jun 20, 01:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 17, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 14, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLIran Nuke before 2027?$13.86Jun 13, 00:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 5, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran Nuke before 2027?$15.00Jun 4, 00:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $16.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 01:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.