Nocturnal-Stamen
0xd1802a49b7c2b6d9089337f62f6e513f19c8a795
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$5.55
Total PnL
$-5.41
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.86
$0.87
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
1 shares @ 76.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.31
$0.31
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$1.19
$0.19
- YES
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$1.14
$0.14
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 1.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.06
$-0.94
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in February 2026?
105 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in February 2026?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
2 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.00Mar 8, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?$1.00Mar 3, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?$1.00Mar 3, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?$1.00Mar 3, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$1.00Mar 3, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.00Mar 3, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$1.00Feb 28, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$1.00Feb 28, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$1.00Feb 28, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin outperform Gold in February 2026?$1.00Feb 28, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in February 2026?$1.00Feb 28, 19:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 19:54 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 8, 08:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".