Lively-Cobweb
0xd1b9f8b3427d078edc1ca78ccde11acb2a7fa04e
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-7.95
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on July 13?
20 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on July 13?
20 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on July 13?
20 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on July 13?
20 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on July 13?
20 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 29°C on July 13?
20 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
20 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-11.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
20 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
20 shares @ 39.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.85
- UP
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
20 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 23:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 22?$8.77Jul 22, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?$5.06Jul 22, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 22?$7.94Jul 22, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 22?$8.77Jul 22, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 22?$7.04Jul 22, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?$4.33Jul 22, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$4.52Jul 22, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on July 22?$4.81Jul 22, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?$4.33Jul 22, 11:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 21?$8.62Jul 22, 06:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 21?$9.21Jul 21, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 21?$7.35Jul 21, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 21?$6.94Jul 21, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 21?$8.20Jul 21, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 20?$7.94Jul 21, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 22?$5.11Jul 21, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 22?$5.08Jul 21, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 22?$5.09Jul 21, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 23?$5.09Jul 21, 07:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $5.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 07:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 23:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.