0xd1f064cec716ca213183824c58c890c3c1ce02cd
0xd1f064cec716ca213183824c58c890c3c1ce02cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-480.16
Win rate
62%
181 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
1000 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-263.68
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
281 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
230 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.89
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
200 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
150 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.22
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
150 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-8.33
- YES
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
131 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$5.64Jul 12, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1.07Jul 12, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1.07Jul 12, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$3.58Jul 11, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$8.80Jul 11, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 7?$0.90Jul 7, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 7?$0.01Jul 7, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 7?$0.09Jul 7, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 7?$1.05Jul 7, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 7?$1.13Jul 7, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?$5.00Jul 7, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$3.53Jul 7, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$2.47Jul 7, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$6.00Jul 7, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$1.20Jul 1, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$6.10Jul 1, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?$9.94Jul 1, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?$5.31Jul 1, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?$0.88Jul 1, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$6.17Jun 30, 23:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 181 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
181 closed markets, 62% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 02:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 08:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 181 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.