Bustling-Forecast
0xd20958361074d525e4351b0bf40c648fa7c08dba
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.2K
Realised
$-76.24
Win rate
33%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 5?
15168 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-15.17
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
5211 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-443.87
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
3326 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-110.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 5?
1144 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 25?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 5?
685 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-77.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 4?
647 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-83.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 22?
574 shares @ 42.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-245.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 1?
517 shares @ 93.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-484.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27?
483 shares @ 72.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-348.55
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14?$24.28Jun 14, 07:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14?$49.95Jun 14, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14?$8.62Jun 14, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14?$2.25Jun 14, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14?$7.30Jun 14, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14?$3.36Jun 14, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14?$47.14Jun 14, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14?$24.28Jun 14, 02:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13?$50.00Jun 13, 22:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13?$4.99Jun 13, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13?$103.90Jun 13, 21:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13?$3.29Jun 13, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13?$9.88Jun 13, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13?$29.66Jun 13, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13?$9.88Jun 13, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13?$2.50Jun 13, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13?$6.99Jun 13, 14:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13?$1.19Jun 13, 14:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13?$42.91Jun 13, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13?$73.37Jun 13, 12:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $34.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 06:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 07:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.