Charming-House
0xd20a6695a216f3a6e16adeb851a04bb9c315098d
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$140.30
Total PnL
$-5.63
Realised
$-2.73
Win rate
36%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?
74 shares @ 19.4¢·now 46.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$33.83
$19.58
- NO
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
31 shares @ 57.9¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$25.09
$7.27
- NO
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
15 shares @ 85.1¢·now 99.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.87
$2.11
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
15 shares @ 51.3¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$13.28
$5.58
- YES
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?
59 shares @ 29.8¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.19
$-6.36
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.21
$0.06
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
35 shares @ 51.4¢·now 21.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$7.31
$-10.60
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
4 shares @ 80.6¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.45
$0.86
- NO
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 65.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.42
$0.17
- NO
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
4 shares @ 65.0¢·now 86.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.31
$0.81
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00Jul 1, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$1.00Jul 1, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. Sweden: France O/U 0.5$0.00Jun 30, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Sweden: France O/U 0.5$1.03Jun 30, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 30?$4.97Jun 30, 20:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 30, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 30?$1.30Jun 30, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$2.50Jun 30, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 30, 18:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 30, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.45Jun 30, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.09Jun 30, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.14Jun 30, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.03Jun 30, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.10Jun 30, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 30, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.18Jun 30, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.64Jun 30, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.40Jun 30, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.65Jun 30, 18:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 07:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 01:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.