Rewarding-Fingerling
0xd226be843f1c20a277e623cf8baf35b84563edc9
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-95.78
Realised
$-16.55
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 13?
625 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 13?
520 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 13?
390 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.51
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or higher on April 13?
381 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 13?
212 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 13?
198 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 13?
172 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-9.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 14?
152 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 13?
132 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 14?
61 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.13
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$4.57Jul 20, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$14.91Jul 20, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$15.09Jul 20, 08:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$17.35Jul 17, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$15.10Jul 17, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$4.88Jul 14, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$12.21Jul 14, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$18.35Jul 14, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$15.01Jul 14, 00:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$1.36Jul 11, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$15.60Jul 11, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$14.96Jul 11, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$10.64Jul 8, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$15.34Jul 8, 21:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$17.35Jul 8, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$15.09Jul 8, 02:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$7.35Jul 2, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$15.30Jul 2, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$26.71Jul 2, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$20.34Jul 2, 14:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $15.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 18:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 14:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.