Amusing-Investigation
0xd2273583a490c7a3e659e286e27eba16c3714c7e
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-1.0K
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
800 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$800.00
$0.80
- NO
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
400 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$400.00
$1.20
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?
400 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$400.00
$2.80
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
400 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$400.00
$9.28
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?
392 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$392.00
$3.14
- NO
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
132 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$131.70
$1.32
- NO
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
88 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$87.78
$1.76
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$388.99Jul 17, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$86.09Jul 17, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$398.85Jul 17, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$130.44Jul 17, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$391.08Jul 17, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$397.39Jul 17, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?$799.26Jul 17, 13:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$70.93Jul 17, 13:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?$200.00Jul 17, 13:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?$321.00Jul 17, 13:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?$400.00Jul 17, 13:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$400.00Jul 17, 13:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$400.00Jul 17, 13:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$400.00Jul 17, 13:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$400.00Jul 17, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?$320.38Jun 11, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$399.62Jun 11, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$399.62Jun 11, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$46.16Jun 11, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$15.49Jun 11, 06:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $320.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 02:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 13:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.