Rare-Liability
0xd23b02e441df456b19e4ed00dbeab0dc642ad26c
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$49.80
Total PnL
$-0.22
Realised
$-1.18
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
7 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2025$6.92
$0.16
- NO
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?
6 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$6.32
$0.02
- NO
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference?
6 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2025$5.81
$0.01
- NO
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?
6 shares @ 96.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$5.68
$0.18
- NO
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
4 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$4.07
$0.07
- NO
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
3 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$3.37
$0.07
- NO
Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$3.00
$0.00
- NO
Is Earth flat?
3 shares @ 96.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.89
$0.09
- NO
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?
3 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$2.51
$0.01
- NO
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference?
2 shares @ 98.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2025$2.42
$0.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?$2.20Apr 7, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?$6.30Apr 7, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?$20.96Apr 7, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference?$5.80Apr 7, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference?$2.00Apr 7, 06:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference?$23.30Apr 7, 06:35 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?$19.86Apr 7, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?$2.10Apr 7, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April?$2.32Apr 7, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sevilla FC win La Liga?$3.24Apr 7, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?$3.59Apr 7, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Girona FC win La Liga?$4.25Apr 7, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta have the top AI model on March 31?$5.23Apr 7, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the Western Conference?$22.04Apr 7, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?$2.10Mar 25, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIs Earth flat?$2.80Mar 25, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the top AI model on March 31?$5.20Mar 25, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?$3.50Mar 25, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April?$2.30Mar 25, 05:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals?$4.20Mar 25, 05:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $28.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 08:06 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 7, 06:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".