0xd24c9b4c4e40905a3f7f1325d723d1465e550061
0xd24c9b4c4e40905a3f7f1325d723d1465e550061
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$17.07
Total PnL
$-72.92
Realised
$-0.68
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 21?
10 shares @ 31.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$10.32
$7.12
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
24 shares @ 63.9¢·now 27.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.75
$-8.77
- YES
Will Pakistan win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?
197 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-9.80
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
100 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 28?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 23?
92 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?
62 shares @ 16.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 23?
50 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
50 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
50 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 21?$0.00Apr 26, 11:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 21?$0.00Apr 18, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 21?$0.00Apr 13, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 21?$0.00Apr 7, 14:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 21?$0.00Mar 24, 04:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 21?$0.00Mar 20, 03:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 21?$0.00Mar 18, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$15.52Mar 18, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$5.00Mar 18, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$6.00Mar 18, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$8.00Mar 18, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by June 30?$7.25Mar 18, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$4.00Mar 18, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another country strike Iran by March 31?$4.75Mar 18, 10:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 21?$0.00Mar 14, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMIran Strike on Israel by February 28?$0.00Mar 3, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?$0.00Mar 3, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 23?$0.00Mar 3, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?$0.00Mar 3, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?$5.00Feb 28, 16:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $5.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 6, 17:40 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 26, 11:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.