Horrible-Icon
0xd29da8100bb2b910540c973bcc5eec452bc4f43c
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-862.04
Realised
$-24.59
Win rate
0%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 2?
860 shares @ 45.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-388.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 2?
779 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-200.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 1?
241 shares @ 12.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-29.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?
197 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-65.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 1?
132 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 1?
113 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-20?
53 shares @ 76.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?
50 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-16.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 12?
26 shares @ 38.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 11?
23 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.66
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$0.44Jul 15, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$1.03Jul 15, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 13?$23.76Jul 13, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 13?$30.27Jul 13, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 12?$10.20Jul 12, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 12?$10.31Jul 12, 03:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?$3.33Jul 11, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 11?$2.78Jul 11, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?$17.65Jul 11, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 2?$64.79Jul 2, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 2?$92.75Jul 2, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?$67.18Jul 2, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 2?$333.98Jul 2, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 2?$114.49Jul 2, 03:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 1?$487.20Jul 2, 03:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 1?$86.54Jul 2, 00:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 1?$99.61Jul 2, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 1?$4.40Jul 1, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?$7.06Jul 1, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 1?$6.92Jul 1, 12:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $50.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 19:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 20:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.