Wilted-Haven
0xd29e1b8179b8484f531ec8d0adf670908934e912
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-274.65
Realised
$-58.51
Win rate
6%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
381 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-38.07
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
102 shares @ 14.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?
86 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-38.70
- YES
Argentina to score first vs. England?
74 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
31 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.79
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
28 shares @ 43.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-12.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
27 shares @ 45.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-12.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
26 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-12.11
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYArgentina to score first vs. England?$25.82Jul 15, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$1.05Jul 1, 14:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.96Jul 1, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$1.03Jul 1, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$1.02Jul 1, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.03Jul 1, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.09Jul 1, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$5.18Jul 1, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$5.16Jul 1, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$5.35Jul 1, 14:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$0.50Jun 30, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$5.19Jun 30, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$25.73Jun 30, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$45.80Jun 30, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$5.13Jun 30, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$25.80Jun 30, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$5.22Jun 30, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$8.59Jun 30, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.17Jun 30, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$5.34Jun 30, 20:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 19:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 19:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.