0xd2e3cc9694a8c628eefec34bef1f17461083955e
0xd2e3cc9694a8c628eefec34bef1f17461083955e
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$26.89
Total PnL
$-13.01
Realised
$-1.00
Win rate
25%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?
43 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.62
$-0.21
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?
56 shares @ 8.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.34
$-1.11
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
92 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.03
$-0.08
- NO
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.03
$-0.12
- NO
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?
2 shares @ 76.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.89
$0.16
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?
48 shares @ 9.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.86
$-2.43
- NO
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?
2 shares @ 72.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.77
$0.17
- NO
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.53
$0.45
- YES
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?
12 shares @ 20.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.49
$-0.99
- YES
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $40B by December 31?
20 shares @ 17.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.37
$-1.96
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?$3.97Jul 27, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?$1.62Jul 24, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?$1.48Jul 24, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?$1.51Jul 24, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?$1.46Jul 24, 19:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?$1.68Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?$1.13Jul 18, 18:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 20:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 22:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.