0xd2e3cc9694a8c628eefec34bef1f17461083955e
0xd2e3cc9694a8c628eefec34bef1f17461083955e
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$29.97
Total PnL
$-38.12
Realised
$0.36
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.59
$-0.10
- YES
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $40B by December 31?
26 shares @ 17.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.06
$-0.39
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?
42 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.16
$-0.21
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?
36 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.07
$-0.18
- YES
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?
17 shares @ 20.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.23
$-1.08
- NO
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?
3 shares @ 72.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.22
$0.09
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?
20 shares @ 12.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.19
$-0.20
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?
2 shares @ 32.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.68
$1.14
- YES
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $25B by December 31?
12 shares @ 12.6¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.65
$0.17
- NO
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?
5 shares @ 76.0¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.53
$-2.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?$3.37Jul 2, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?$2.47Jul 2, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?$3.49Jul 2, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?$3.42Jul 1, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?$1.08Jul 1, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?$2.15Jul 1, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $40B by December 31?$4.60Jul 1, 20:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?$1.79Jun 29, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?$2.12Jun 29, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?$2.41Jun 29, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$3.02Jun 29, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $25B by December 31?$1.53Jun 29, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?$2.40Jun 29, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?$1.47Jun 29, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?$3.80Jun 29, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?$4.71Jun 29, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30?$1.49Jun 29, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by June 30?$12.28Jun 29, 10:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?$5.13Jun 23, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?$2.53Jun 17, 07:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 06:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 04:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.