Fancy-Bay
0xd2ef907ea0accce14a21b459040b663818dc4210
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$23.81
Total PnL
$-143.37
Realised
$-0.76
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$10.00
$4.80
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1AM ET
5 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$5.00
$2.35
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 12PM ET
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$5.00
$2.20
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4PM ET
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.00
$1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET
2 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.81
$1.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12PM ET
15 shares @ 46.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.95
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 12AM ET
15 shares @ 47.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-7.15
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7PM ET
15 shares @ 44.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.65
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 2AM ET
15 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.65
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2AM ET
15 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.55
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7PM ET$1.45Jul 29, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7PM ET$2.45Jul 29, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7PM ET$2.75Jul 29, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3AM ET$1.65Jul 29, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3AM ET$0.30Jul 29, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3AM ET$2.40Jul 29, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3AM ET$2.40Jul 29, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2AM ET$1.85Jul 29, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2AM ET$1.48Jul 29, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2AM ET$0.37Jul 29, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2AM ET$1.85Jul 29, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5PM ET$1.50Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5PM ET$1.00Jul 28, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET$0.85Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET$0.09Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET$0.95Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET$0.95Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12PM ET$1.85Jul 28, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12PM ET$2.40Jul 28, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12PM ET$2.79Jul 28, 16:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 03:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 23:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.