Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.9K

Realised

$-95.80

Win rate

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
1500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
202 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-14.12
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
136 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
65 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
61 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-12.72
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
48 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
44 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-3.15
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
39 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
34 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-12.04
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
34 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-3.47

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$4.14Jun 10, 05:30 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$8.00Jun 10, 05:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$4.15Jun 10, 05:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$4.14Jun 10, 05:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$8.22Jun 10, 05:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$8.36Jun 10, 05:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$4.14Jun 10, 05:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$4.14Jun 10, 03:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$4.15Jun 10, 03:49 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$10.96Jun 10, 03:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$8.15Jun 10, 03:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$8.00Jun 10, 03:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$12.90Jun 10, 03:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$8.22Jun 10, 03:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$4.14Jun 10, 03:08 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$11.43Jun 10, 03:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$8.21Jun 10, 03:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$8.17Jun 10, 02:47 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$4.13Jun 10, 02:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$8.16Jun 10, 02:37 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

40/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry86 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 34
Avg trade size: $6.19
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 10, 00:56 UTC
Last active: Jun 10, 05:30 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:24:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data