Gentle-Oat
0xd302c20b7618cda8077d3011b9501a836d758cbf
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-14.0K
Realised
$-2.4K
Win rate
4%
80 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 10?
2559 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-160.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 21?
2220 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-201.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21?
2200 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-200.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21?
2200 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-200.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15?
1868 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-169.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14?
1835 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-166.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 14?
1835 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-166.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14?
1835 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-166.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 15?
1718 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-159.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 12?
1709 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-155.36
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?$115.00Jul 9, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?$0.12Jul 9, 05:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?$1.69Jul 9, 03:01 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?$5.00Jul 9, 03:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?$5.29Jul 9, 01:57 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?$110.00Jul 9, 01:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 2?$107.00Jul 3, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 2?$0.10Jul 2, 00:20 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 2?$0.00Jul 2, 00:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 2?$3.05Jul 2, 00:20 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 2?$107.00Jul 2, 00:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26?$105.78Jun 27, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26?$0.01Jun 27, 01:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on June 26?$0.05Jun 26, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26?$0.01Jun 26, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26?$0.01Jun 26, 04:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26?$0.04Jun 26, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26?$4.81Jun 26, 04:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 26?$0.05Jun 26, 04:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26?$1.90Jun 26, 04:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 80 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
80 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $8.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 11:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 05:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 80 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.