Possible-Messy
0xd306470840c295424f5e3b34c6e1c13730354320
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-520.52
Realised
$-4.86
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
58 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.30
- NO
Will CA Rosario Central vs. Racing Club end in a draw?
45 shares @ 40.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-18.15
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
31 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-16.20
- CHICAGO CUBS
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs
21 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-15.60
- CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers
21 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.61
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
21 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- NEW YORK METS
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
21 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.28
- CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
20 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.09
- NO
Will Kahrabaa Ismailia FC win on 2026-05-12?
20 shares @ 48.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.65
- NO
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?
20 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-14.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$2.95Jul 21, 17:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$5.00Jul 21, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$2.75Jul 21, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$1.70Jul 21, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$3.10Jul 21, 13:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$5.00Jul 21, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$2.50Jul 21, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$5.00Jul 21, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$2.13Jul 21, 13:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$5.00Jul 21, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$3.00Jul 21, 12:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$5.00Jul 21, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$1.68Jul 21, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$3.18Jul 21, 08:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$5.00Jul 21, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$2.35Jul 21, 04:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$5.00Jul 21, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$2.40Jul 21, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.00Jul 20, 20:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$5.00Jul 20, 19:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $2.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 14:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 17:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.