Dangerous-Literate
0xd31ad544838e37d46db7730adf577053dba05f51
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$4.90
Win rate
100%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 67°F or below on June 27?
4900 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 89°F or below on June 27?
4890 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 65°F or below on June 27?
4260 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 27?
4033 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 27?
3824 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on June 27?
3416 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 55°F or below on June 27?
3352 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on June 27?
3190 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28?
1427 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$10.00Jul 14, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$4.86Jul 14, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$4.58Jul 14, 08:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$5.00Jul 14, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$4.67Jul 14, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$10.00Jul 14, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$4.77Jul 14, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$4.72Jul 14, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$10.00Jul 14, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$4.77Jul 14, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$4.63Jul 14, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$5.00Jul 14, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$3.72Jul 14, 00:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$10.00Jul 14, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$4.34Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$4.34Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$5.00Jul 13, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$4.58Jul 13, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$3.86Jul 13, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$3.86Jul 13, 21:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $4.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 12:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 08:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.