Prize-Lollipop
0xd338744a29944874cd72ca91a25aa25101399fd3
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$137.63
Total PnL
$-778.96
Realised
$-7.92
Win rate
0%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 27?
50 shares @ 77.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$39.75
$1.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 27?
50 shares @ 61.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$30.00
$-0.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?
18 shares @ 78.3¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$14.13
$0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 27?
17 shares @ 58.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$10.00
$0.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?
14 shares @ 75.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$9.38
$-1.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?
16 shares @ 20.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$5.32
$2.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 26?
5 shares @ 76.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$4.88
$1.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 27?
6 shares @ 74.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$3.78
$-0.49
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 27?
5 shares @ 62.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$3.32
$0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 27?
3 shares @ 69.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$2.52
$0.29
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 27?$11.92Jul 26, 19:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 27?$25.35Jul 26, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 27?$39.00Jul 26, 19:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 27?$16.28Jul 26, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 27?$16.66Jul 26, 19:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 27?$13.32Jul 26, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 27?$13.74Jul 26, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 27?$38.57Jul 26, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 27?$39.50Jul 26, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 26?$2.65Jul 26, 16:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?$24.35Jul 26, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 27?$5.50Jul 26, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 27?$12.23Jul 26, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 27?$15.00Jul 26, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 27?$6.34Jul 26, 15:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 27?$15.96Jul 26, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 27?$16.17Jul 26, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 27?$2.23Jul 26, 14:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 27?$2.23Jul 26, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 27?$2.40Jul 26, 14:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $15.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 11:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 19:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.