Wallet digest

active

Activity score

34/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.6K

Realised

$-22.40

Win rate

10%

30 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 44

DOWN
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
5386 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025
$0.00
$-2.7K
UP
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 10AM ET
634 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025
$0.00
$-317.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9AM ET
628 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025
$0.00
$-314.00
DOWN
HYPE Up or Down - August 6, 9AM ET
170 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026
$0.00
$-85.07
OVER
76ers vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5
25 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-13.33
OVER
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5
19 shares @ 57.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-10.88
UNDER
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
17 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-2.97
OVER
Popyrin vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5
15 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-7.00
OVER
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
15 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-7.20
DONSKI
Set 1 Winner: Donski vs Duran
14 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-6.86

Recent activity

REDEEMColorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5$9.97Aug 9, 01:45 UTC
TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5$3.60Aug 8, 05:46 UTC
TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down - August 6, 9AM ET$33.05Aug 6, 04:36 UTC
TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down - August 6, 9AM ET$49.38Aug 6, 04:36 UTC
TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down - August 6, 9AM ET$2.73Aug 6, 04:33 UTC
REDEEMHYPE Up or Down - August 5, 4AM ET$88.09Aug 5, 09:11 UTC
TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down - August 5, 4AM ET$9.56Aug 5, 03:07 UTC
TRADEBUYHYPE Up or Down - August 5, 4AM ET$35.69Aug 5, 03:02 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$45.26Aug 2, 16:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$14.38Aug 2, 03:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$8.54Aug 2, 03:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$5.30Jul 30, 16:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.74Jul 30, 03:24 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$5.30Jul 27, 16:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.74Jul 27, 02:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$5.30Jul 24, 16:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.74Jul 24, 02:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.65Jul 21, 02:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$5.30Jul 18, 16:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.74Jul 18, 02:06 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

67/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

10% win rate over 30 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

30 closed markets, 10% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry93 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 32
Avg trade size: $7.09
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 20, 13:12 UTC
Last active: Aug 9, 01:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 30 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 11:40:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data