Past-Dance
0xd372b7468864233aa6d33aa2dda181511c7804be
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$230.22
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$1.45
Win rate
42%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 3?
126 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$126.28
$1.20
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 3?
104 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$103.95
$0.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27?
503 shares @ 96.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-487.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 27?
350 shares @ 96.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-338.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 27?
294 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.65
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 11?
290 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22?
229 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-20.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 11?
185 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-27.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22?
178 shares @ 40.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-73.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 18?
170 shares @ 73.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-124.57
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 3?$8.49Aug 3, 03:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 2?$7.81Aug 3, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 3?$103.01Aug 3, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 3?$8.00Aug 3, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 3?$62.28Aug 3, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 3?$62.86Aug 3, 00:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 2?$44.27Aug 2, 22:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 2?$9.76Aug 2, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 2?$7.11Aug 2, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 2?$1.31Aug 2, 04:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 2?$1.87Aug 2, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 2?$1.07Aug 2, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 2?$14.41Aug 2, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 2?$7.88Aug 2, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 2?$4.02Aug 2, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 2?$9.67Aug 2, 01:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 1?$142.00Aug 1, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 1?$52.60Aug 1, 15:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on August 1?$0.02Aug 1, 15:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 1?$41.28Aug 1, 07:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
38 closed markets, 42% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $16.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 08:52 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 03:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.