Lovely-View-Rosemary
0xd3760017d649f54ddefc7311efa598be53b2231d
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
27
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-545.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
5882 shares @ 19.1¢·now 14.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$864.59
$-257.83
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
3930 shares @ 18.8¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$766.34
$27.39
- YES
Will Hong Kong have between 575-600mm of precipitation in July?
115 shares @ 17.4¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.08
$-7.92
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 24?
75 shares @ 13.4¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$10.84
$0.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?
27 shares @ 36.4¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$10.71
$0.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 24?
24 shares @ 42.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$9.52
$-0.48
- YES
Will Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July?
7 shares @ 69.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.60
$-0.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 24?
28 shares @ 18.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$4.31
$-0.69
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 24?
81 shares @ 12.4¢·now 4.4¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$3.55
$-6.45
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
275 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$25.83Jul 23, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$103.90Jul 23, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$88.65Jul 23, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$99.50Jul 23, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$92.66Jul 23, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$10.44Jul 23, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$144.90Jul 23, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$20.87Jul 23, 06:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$179.46Jul 23, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 24?$5.20Jul 23, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 24?$10.29Jul 23, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?$10.32Jul 23, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 24?$10.44Jul 23, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 24?$10.43Jul 23, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$50.60Jul 23, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$91.62Jul 23, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$5.13Jul 23, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$5.20Jul 23, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$5.22Jul 23, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$5.12Jul 23, 04:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $57.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 12:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 11:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.