Sturdy-Diam
0xd38a03f88f820bed126e30690737ecd7ad5852c0
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.3K
Realised
$-930.40
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
235860 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.9K
- NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 20-26?
105986 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-128.88
- NO
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 20-26?
28406 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-28.89
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 8?
21031 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-55.59
- YES
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
11505 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-187.03
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on January 9?
9841 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-55.69
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 3?
9620 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-9.62
- YES
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?
9404 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-76.62
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 8?
8916 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-17.83
- YES
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
8350 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-409.97
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$356.51Jan 28, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$13.00Jan 27, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$496.00Jan 26, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 26?$0.18Jan 26, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 26?$0.35Jan 26, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 26?$0.35Jan 26, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 26?$0.35Jan 26, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 26?$0.02Jan 26, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.70 on January 26?$1.30Jan 26, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 26?$0.02Jan 26, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on January 26?$0.01Jan 26, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on January 26?$0.00Jan 26, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on January 26?$0.00Jan 26, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on January 26?$0.02Jan 26, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on January 26?$0.00Jan 26, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 26?$0.02Jan 26, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on January 26?$0.00Jan 26, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on January 26?$0.00Jan 26, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 26?$0.02Jan 26, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on January 26?$0.00Jan 26, 13:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $17.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 26, 12:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 28, 13:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.