Wallet profile

Bold-Stamen

0xd3ebb8d1495491f9135b14af63aa5be9fc045e9d

activity 22/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

22/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

18

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-144.97

Realised

$-7.01

Win rate

0%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 18

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.58Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$5.04Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.67Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.79Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.77Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$6.15Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.87Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.36Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$7.91Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.57Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.54Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.99Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$10.72Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$9.18Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.51Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.94Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$7.96Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$15.58Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$23.36Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.58Jun 17, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

28/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity47 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry67 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
4
Avg trade size
$1.01
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
May 21, 11:40 UTC
Last active
Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
Win rate sample
3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 06:45:34 UTC·src:Polymarket Data