Specific-Derivative
0xd3f1668931a026d9e64cca1030557bc1afe0de71
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$10.41
Win rate
55%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- BOLSOVA
Les Sables d'Olonne: Aliona Bolsova vs Carol Young Suh Lee
748 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.75
- BURRUCHAGA
Rio Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Vit Kopriva
117 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-13.33
- YES
O'Higgins FC vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to Score
95 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-13.36
- TAUSON
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Clara Tauson vs Jessica Pegula
88 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-21.88
- UP
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
82 shares @ 28.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-23.47
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
80 shares @ 28.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-22.80
- OVER
AC Milan vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5
76 shares @ 37.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-28.65
- UNDER
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5
75 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-6.75
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
74 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.16
- YES
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25?
71 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)$0.00Mar 18, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMMiami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliers$0.00Mar 18, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$2.55Mar 17, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$1.95Mar 16, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$4.48Mar 16, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$2.40Mar 16, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$1.20Mar 16, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$2.00Mar 16, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$2.35Mar 16, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$2.25Mar 16, 21:10 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$5.00Mar 16, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$2.70Mar 16, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$2.00Mar 16, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$4.25Mar 16, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$1.35Mar 16, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$0.40Mar 16, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$4.92Mar 16, 19:47 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$4.92Mar 16, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$1.60Mar 16, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$1.65Mar 16, 19:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $2.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 16:07 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 18, 03:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.