Fresh-Espalier
0xd3f3dab51cb2122b96d90fa79b64dce6bd9df66e
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
35
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-951.97
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?
9652 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-199.99
- YES
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?
3514 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31?
3361 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?
3088 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?
2828 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
1994 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Ukraine strike on Moscow municipality by December 31?
1675 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?
1465 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?
1289 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
1265 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$4.00Jan 29, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$2.00Jan 29, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?$3.00Jan 29, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?$3.00Jan 29, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike another country first?$5.00Jan 29, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Iran next?$10.00Jan 29, 09:39 UTC
- REDEEMRussia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?$0.00Jan 3, 06:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?$0.00Jan 3, 06:25 UTC
- REDEEMPutin out as President of Russia in 2025?$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMUS national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMZelensky resigns in 2025?$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMPutin out as President of Russia in 2025?$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of December?$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026??$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $215 before 2026??$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $200 before 2026??$0.00Jan 3, 06:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $73.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 24, 17:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 29, 09:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".