Numb-Dimension
0xd41a2bf5af5a59a7266d6e9588c8333f052ec247
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$22.11
Total PnL
$-41.34
Realised
$1.08
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
19 shares @ 31.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.72
$-2.19
- YES
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
52 shares @ 13.5¢·now 7.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.69
$-3.35
- YES
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?
16 shares @ 32.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.52
$-1.60
- YES
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on September 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 15.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.20
$-0.80
- YES
Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by August 31?
20 shares @ 54.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.80
$-9.00
- YES
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?
20 shares @ 13.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.20
$-1.40
- YES
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on September 30, 2026?
8 shares @ 18.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.17
$-0.19
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
20 shares @ 14.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Oct 26, 2026$1.10
$-1.70
- YES
Will Bridget Phillipson be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
20 shares @ 14.0¢·now 4.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.93
$-1.87
- YES
Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
20 shares @ 15.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Oct 26, 2026$0.75
$-2.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Erling Braut Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?$13.00Aug 9, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?$5.91Aug 9, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erling Braut Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?$13.00Aug 9, 02:43 UTC
- REWARD$13.89Aug 9, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Estefanía Mercado Asencio win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?$6.40Aug 8, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Estefanía Mercado Asencio win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?$6.20Aug 8, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPD win 18-21 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$5.60Aug 8, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on September 30, 2026?$1.03Aug 8, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Denny Hamlin win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?$5.38Aug 8, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYLisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?$2.60Aug 8, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Estefanía Mercado Asencio win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?$3.92Aug 8, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Estefanía Mercado Asencio win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?$3.78Aug 8, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chris Bryant be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?$3.11Aug 8, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "End of Beginning – Djo" be the #2 song for 2026?$3.26Aug 8, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "End of Beginning – Djo" be the #2 song for 2026?$4.00Aug 8, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bridget Phillipson be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?$2.80Aug 8, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chris Bryant be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?$3.20Aug 8, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?$6.62Aug 8, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?$7.60Aug 8, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump tries to fire Lisa Cook by August 31?$10.80Aug 8, 01:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $5.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 7, 11:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 09:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.