Reliable-Theory
0xd4285ab06634ca4df8fe51829b4a92a43cdd8f9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-87.50
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?
700 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?
684 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-33.60
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 21?
603 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on December 26?
600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 17?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14?
421 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Meta (META) close at $580-$590 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?
371 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $2.80 on October 24?
234 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3?$137.14Jun 3, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3?$137.01Jun 1, 09:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$136.14May 26, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$136.01May 24, 10:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in May 2026?$136.14May 21, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in May 2026?$136.01May 19, 11:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?$135.13May 9, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?$135.01May 9, 11:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8?$135.13May 9, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8?$135.01May 6, 13:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$135.27May 6, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?$135.01May 4, 04:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30?$135.14May 4, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30?$135.01Apr 30, 12:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on April 28?$135.13Apr 30, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on April 28?$135.00Apr 27, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21?$135.13Apr 27, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21?$135.00Apr 20, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 13-19?$135.13Apr 20, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 13-19?$135.00Apr 18, 07:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $104.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 12:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 18:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.