Bitter-Butane
0xd4584930db952b87c37c019f0454a64a47dc0633
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-134.13
Realised
$-47.78
Win rate
77%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 4?
158 shares @ 25.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-40.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 6?
138 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 5?
33 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.73
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 9?
27 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.51
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 12?
22 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 4?
20 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on April 4?
17 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.07
- NO
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 9?
10 shares @ 46.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.82
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 11?
7 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.22
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 11?
6 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.19
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for April 13 - April 19 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?$0.84Apr 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for April 13 - April 19 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?$0.61Apr 17, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be between 85 and 90?$2.20Apr 17, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?$0.70Apr 17, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m?$1.35Apr 17, 14:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 13?$5.00Apr 17, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 13?$1.65Apr 13, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 13?$1.90Apr 13, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 13?$2.00Apr 13, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 14?$1.90Apr 13, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 14?$1.70Apr 12, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?$4.99Apr 12, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 12?$5.00Apr 12, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 12?$1.80Apr 12, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 13?$0.50Apr 11, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 13?$1.45Apr 11, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?$0.66Apr 11, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 12?$0.15Apr 11, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 12?$1.94Apr 11, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?$1.33Apr 11, 06:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
77% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 8, 13:17 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 18, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.