Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

139

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.1K

Realised

$-70.76

Win rate

139 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 139

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
574 shares @ 38.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-220.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
370 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
368 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-16.96
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
321 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
270 shares @ 22.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-61.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
262 shares @ 26.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-70.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
259 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-55.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
245 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-52.06

Recent activity

TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$10.33May 27, 19:57 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$20.68May 27, 19:56 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET$12.52May 26, 18:40 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$13.51May 26, 17:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$10.18May 26, 17:27 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$10.51May 26, 15:47 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$5.29May 26, 15:38 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$10.17May 26, 15:28 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$21.74May 26, 15:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$15.33May 26, 15:06 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$3.07May 22, 21:01 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.33May 22, 20:56 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$10.36May 22, 20:54 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$20.71May 22, 20:54 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$39.58May 22, 20:52 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$5.15May 22, 20:50 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$15.56May 22, 20:50 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$21.23May 22, 20:50 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$9.16May 22, 20:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$10.34May 22, 20:39 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

65/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 139 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

139 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry81 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $16.90
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 22, 18:28 UTC
Last active: May 27, 19:57 UTC
Win rate sample: 139 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 14:51:57 UTC·src:Polymarket Data