0xd46eca00cd366b09f0d2913cb00d12fe451fa2ba
0xd46eca00cd366b09f0d2913cb00d12fe451fa2ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.7K
Realised
$-240.12
Win rate
13%
77 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on July 1?
180 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-16.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on May 21?
180 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C or higher on July 1?
180 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-16.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on July 1?
180 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-16.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 21?
180 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-16.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 30?
175 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 30?
172 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 30?
172 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on June 30?
172 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 24?
164 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-14.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 6?$0.48Jul 5, 19:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 5?$3.70Jul 5, 19:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 6?$4.70Jul 5, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 6?$2.12Jul 5, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 7?$1.00Jul 5, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on July 6?$0.11Jul 5, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 6?$0.09Jul 5, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 6?$0.49Jul 5, 19:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 6?$0.69Jul 5, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 6?$3.00Jul 5, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 5?$1.00Jul 5, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 7?$1.19Jul 5, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 7?$2.00Jul 5, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 6?$11.55Jul 5, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 6?$1.10Jul 5, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 6?$3.55Jul 5, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 6?$2.72Jul 5, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on July 7?$0.06Jul 5, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on July 6?$0.05Jul 5, 18:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 6?$3.00Jul 5, 18:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 77 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
77 closed markets, 13% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 15:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 19:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 77 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.