Closed-Harbor
0xd474f9275a3b668d5f16d6ca1c7dbe7763ba23f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$4.00
Total PnL
$0.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2025$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2025$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2025$1.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 12?$1.00Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April?$1.00Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill another coalition form the next German Government?$1.00Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $200k in April?$1.00Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill FDP be part of the next German government?$1.00Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon Hunter Biden?$1.00Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit Gaza in first 100 days?$1.01Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $300 in April?$1.01Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canada block Pornhub in the U.S. before May?$1.01Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?$1.01Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$1.00Apr 13, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April?$1.00Apr 13, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?$1.00Apr 13, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada block Pornhub in the U.S. before May?$1.00Apr 13, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon Hunter Biden?$1.00Apr 13, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit Gaza in first 100 days?$1.00Apr 13, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 12?$1.00Apr 13, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $300 in April?$1.00Apr 13, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18?$1.00Apr 13, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $8000 in April?$1.00Apr 13, 10:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 21, 15:48 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 2, 13:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.