Firsthand-Ease
0xd4787b1d1243d95d71fa6d4f1218093dadd40ed8
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$76.24
Total PnL
$-71.45
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
148 shares @ 27.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$42.21
$2.21
- YES
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
1076 shares @ 9.1¢·now 2.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.06
$-68.62
- YES
Anduril IPO before 2027?
66 shares @ 15.1¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.97
$-5.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$41.17Jul 23, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$4.16Jul 23, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$5.27Jul 18, 08:43 UTC
- REWARD$0.84Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$18.41Jul 9, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$10.36Jul 9, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$41.40Jul 9, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$20.70Jul 9, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$196.84May 27, 04:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$5.61May 23, 04:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$0.00May 23, 03:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$100.00May 23, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$1.1KMay 23, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$104.40May 16, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$31.41May 16, 02:37 UTC
- REWARD$3.16May 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$4.19May 13, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$17.56May 13, 21:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$0.00May 13, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$104.41May 13, 17:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $28.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 04:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 16:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.