Impossible-Caption
0xd49829353a5e33f4d29bf976ac9be8bde744a6c5
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$440.21
Total PnL
$-137.86
Realised
$-9.40
Win rate
6%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
250 shares @ 50.0¢·now 64.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$160.88
$35.88
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
250 shares @ 50.0¢·now 35.6¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$89.13
$-35.88
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 6?
75 shares @ 86.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$60.75
$-3.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 5?
34 shares @ 70.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$21.38
$-2.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 5?
32 shares @ 62.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$20.76
$0.96
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 6?
27 shares @ 76.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$19.41
$-1.37
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 5?
75 shares @ 84.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$12.37
$-50.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 6?
44 shares @ 31.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$8.60
$-5.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 6?
36 shares @ 24.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$7.72
$-0.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 7?
10 shares @ 79.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$6.86
$-0.67
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 6?$8.35Jul 5, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 6?$8.51Jul 5, 05:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 5?$1.00Jul 5, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 5?$1.00Jul 5, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 5?$26.18Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 5?$11.25Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 5?$1.63Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 5?$1.00Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 5?$1.63Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 5?$1.00Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 5?$8.16Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 5?$8.38Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 5?$15.44Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 5?$1.20Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 5?$2.19Jul 5, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 6?$7.32Jul 5, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 5?$5.60Jul 5, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 5?$5.56Jul 5, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 7?$7.52Jul 5, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 6?$5.43Jul 5, 04:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 04:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 05:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.