Anxious-Preparation
0xd4a9f219e70d1e3af5a8468fe4841fe5bae475f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
144
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-14.85
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 144- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 10?
4823 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-6.14
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 14?
689 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.76
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 13?
670 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on March 13?
619 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.62
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 14?
618 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 13?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 9?
487 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-64.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9?
387 shares @ 29.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-115.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9?
387 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-25.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 9?
387 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-10.15
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 27?$37.05Jul 27, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 27?$36.09Jul 26, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on July 26?$37.88Jul 26, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 26?$37.18Jul 26, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 26?$31.51Jul 26, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 26?$4.88Jul 26, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on July 26?$7.69Jul 26, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or below on July 26?$39.06Jul 26, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or below on July 26?$36.27Jul 26, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on July 26?$36.27Jul 26, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on July 26?$36.46Jul 26, 03:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 25?$12.85Jul 25, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 25?$24.65Jul 25, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 25?$36.91Jul 25, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 25?$37.38Jul 25, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 25?$27.14Jul 25, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 25?$9.62Jul 25, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on July 22?$30.23Jul 22, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on July 22?$28.70Jul 22, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$3.75Jul 22, 16:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $29.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 08:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.