Buzzing-Bottle
0xd4ade21010c96375b8f8c3ea07d4f0784132a08c
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$102.67
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-128.61
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
111 shares @ 84.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$102.67
$9.44
- YES
Will Bernie Sanders win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
6230 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-6.23
- YES
Will Steve Sweeney win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025
2875 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-4.40
- YES
Will Mark Golding be the next Prime Minister of Jamaica after the election?
791 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2025$0.00
$-1.60
- UP
Solana Up or Down - July 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
695 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-347.51
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
245 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-129.01
- UP
Solana Up or Down - July 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
243 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-121.26
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 12PM ET
228 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-116.12
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
224 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-112.18
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
181 shares @ 51.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-93.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 20, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $115.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.