Ironclad-Couch
0xd4b37f839104031135a9e6778d4f2d480ac6e571
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-904.66
Realised
$-40.54
Win rate
0%
74 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 27?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 28?
603 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 28?
573 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 28?
238 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 28?
202 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-23.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 27?
182 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C or higher on June 27?
177 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 27?
151 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 27?
143 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 5?$4.81Jul 5, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 5?$100.76Jul 5, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 5?$101.04Jul 5, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 5?$101.38Jul 5, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 5?$11.03Jul 5, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 5?$10.05Jul 5, 06:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 4?$123.29Jul 5, 06:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 4?$119.78Jul 5, 06:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 4?$117.65Jul 5, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 4?$112.80Jul 4, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 4?$100.75Jul 4, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 4?$100.95Jul 4, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on July 4?$37.68Jul 4, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 4?$100.83Jul 4, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 4?$116.00Jul 4, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 4?$117.39Jul 4, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 4?$120.25Jul 4, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?$123.57Jul 4, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on July 4?$25.51Jul 4, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 4?$100.72Jul 4, 17:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 74 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
74 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $59.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 19:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 16:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 74 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.