Ragged-Dumbwaiter
0xd4bed85494bce444e13ab3436c9aba039284c4c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
46
Open notional
$15.00
Total PnL
$-496.15
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- NO
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?
15 shares @ 86.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.00
$2.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Pipeline" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?
128 shares @ 78.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-101.32
- YES
Will LDP hold the second most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?
110 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2025$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG" debut at #1 in its first week?
60 shares @ 16.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2025$0.00
$-9.70
- NO
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 18?
55 shares @ 82.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2025$0.00
$-45.54
- NO
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
50 shares @ 58.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-29.36
- YES
Will Medina and Quiroga advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?
40 shares @ 91.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2025$0.00
$-36.40
- YES
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
40 shares @ 79.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2025$0.00
$-31.80
- NO
US strikes Nigeria by December 31?
35 shares @ 94.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-32.92
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Libre win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?$0.00Mar 18, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22?$0.00Mar 18, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22?$0.00Mar 18, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 25?$0.00Mar 18, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bernie Sanders say "Billionaire" 7+ times during his West Virginia speech on August 8?$0.00Mar 18, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Libre win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies election?$0.00Mar 18, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?$0.00Mar 18, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15?$0.00Mar 18, 22:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bernie Sanders say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his West Virginia speech on August 8?$0.00Mar 18, 22:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Government shutdown end November 12-15?$0.00Mar 18, 22:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Unity win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?$0.00Mar 18, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?$0.00Mar 18, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Quiroga win by 12-20%?$0.00Mar 18, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22?$0.00Mar 18, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22?$0.00Mar 18, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: August$0.00Mar 18, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?$0.00Mar 18, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump talk to Xi Jinping in November?$0.00Mar 18, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in July?$0.00Mar 18, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Quiroga win by 0-3%?$0.00Mar 18, 22:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 1, 22:10 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 18, 22:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.