Potable-Vinegar
0xd4ce0a7ae5c0f1df855ffcb2d37aa26b66d496e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$161.86
Total PnL
$-713.80
Realised
$-35.12
Win rate
4%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?
79 shares @ 77.4¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$39.94
$-21.25
- YES
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?
59 shares @ 14.7¢·now 49.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$29.35
$20.61
- NO
Will there be 6 or more ChatGPT outages in August 2026?
20 shares @ 74.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.37
$4.57
- NO
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?
20 shares @ 88.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.20
$1.60
- NO
Will Leavitt say "Pool" during the next White House Press Briefing?
20 shares @ 59.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$12.50
$0.70
- NO
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?
10 shares @ 60.1¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.70
$3.67
- NO
Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in August 2026?
35 shares @ 65.6¢·now 23.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$8.05
$-14.90
- YES
Will Leavitt say "Iran" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?
10 shares @ 33.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.00
$1.70
- NO
Will Leavitt say "Iran" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?
10 shares @ 32.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.00
$1.80
- YES
Will Leavitt say "Alien" during the next White House Press Briefing?
8 shares @ 37.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.25
$1.31
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?$20.00Aug 18, 01:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone say "Bank" 5+ times during President Curtis E4 S1?$10.00Aug 17, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone say "Loyal" or "Loyalty" during Big Brother E20?$10.00Aug 17, 11:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone say "Diary" during Big Brother E20?$10.00Aug 17, 11:38 UTC
- REWARD$1.30Aug 14, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no press briefing air by August 31?$0.52Aug 14, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Bank" 5+ times during President Curtis E4 S1?$5.70Aug 13, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Evict" during Big Brother E20?$6.90Aug 13, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Diary" during Big Brother E20?$5.60Aug 13, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Trust" during Big Brother E20?$6.10Aug 13, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Loyal" or "Loyalty" during Big Brother E20?$6.40Aug 13, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Loyal" or "Loyalty" during Big Brother E20?$0.50Aug 13, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Xi" or "Jinping" during the next White House Press Briefing?$2.60Aug 13, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 8-10 times in August?$15.60Aug 13, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yeti say "Marketing" during earnings call?$10.00Aug 13, 15:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yeti say "Cooler" 15+ times during earnings call?$10.00Aug 13, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 8-10 times in August?$3.31Aug 13, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Bank" 5+ times during President Curtis E4 S1?$2.20Aug 13, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Leprechaun" during President Curtis E4 S1?$1.02Aug 13, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yeti say "Marketing" during earnings call?$1.20Aug 13, 12:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $3.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 19:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 01:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.