Wallet digest

active

Activity score

70/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

148

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-824.01

Realised

$42.00

Win rate

100%

14 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 148

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
135 shares @ 33.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-45.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
103 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
93 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
88 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
67 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
55 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
52 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
51 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$10.34May 28, 10:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$9.76May 28, 10:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$2.08May 28, 10:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$2.08May 28, 10:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$10.36May 28, 10:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$13.66May 28, 10:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$10.28May 28, 10:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$12.23May 28, 10:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$2.05May 28, 10:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$2.05May 28, 10:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$2.06May 28, 10:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$2.05May 28, 10:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$51.61May 28, 10:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$51.50May 28, 09:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$14.55May 28, 09:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$10.22May 28, 09:53 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$49.69May 28, 09:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$52.17May 28, 09:51 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$58.77May 28, 09:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$51.12May 28, 09:46 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

100% win rate over 14 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence47 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $16.22
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 26, 16:59 UTC
Last active: May 28, 10:25 UTC
Win rate sample: 14 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:13:15 UTC·src:Polymarket Data