Close-Scenario
0xd50c26f9e8fd4fb84f7c8cbbef387907130c010f
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
138
Open notional
$43.14
Total PnL
$-910.36
Realised
$-0.06
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 138- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 15?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$9.85
$-0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on August 14?
5 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$4.98
$0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 14?
5 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$4.97
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 14?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$4.97
$0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on August 14?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$4.97
$0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on August 15?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.96
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 15?
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.88
$-0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 13?
5 shares @ 18.9¢·now 59.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$2.95
$2.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 14?
10 shares @ 232.7¢·now 0.6¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.06
$-23.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 13?
5 shares @ 42.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$0.04
$-2.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 13?$0.65Aug 13, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 13?$0.07Aug 13, 11:50 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in London on August 14?$70.00Aug 13, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 14?$9.62Aug 13, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 14?$9.91Aug 13, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 36°C on August 14?$4.98Aug 13, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 14?$9.62Aug 13, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 14?$8.85Aug 13, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 14?$4.72Aug 13, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 14?$7.50Aug 13, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C or below on August 14?$9.98Aug 13, 11:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 13?$0.06Aug 13, 11:37 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Beijing on August 14?$30.00Aug 13, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 14?$3.94Aug 13, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 14?$2.96Aug 13, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 14?$4.95Aug 13, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 14?$4.95Aug 13, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 14?$3.75Aug 13, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on August 14?$4.99Aug 13, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 14?$4.65Aug 13, 11:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 00:41 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 12:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.