Turbulent-Notepad
0xd5555147366b7e5bfcea444f4a06a745c18be28a
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$35.4K
Total PnL
$-11.9K
Realised
$1.3K
Win rate
63%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
11464 shares @ 96.2¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$11.1K
$122.76
- NO
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $77.5B by July 31?
3034 shares @ 88.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.0K
$351.18
- NO
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by December 31?
2478 shares @ 85.9¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.5K
$321.16
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
2395 shares @ 71.2¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$246.69
- NO
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by July 31?
1800 shares @ 83.9¢·now 98.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.8K
$253.67
- YES
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
1374 shares @ 93.1¢·now 96.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.3K
$49.59
- NO
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by July 31?
1203 shares @ 90.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.2K
$101.15
- YES
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?
1140 shares @ 98.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.1K
$-6.13
- NO
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $14B by July 31?
913 shares @ 84.2¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$907.13
$137.99
- NO
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?
861 shares @ 83.1¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$778.85
$63.76
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.07Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLAI bubble burst in 2026?$587.30Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?$12.00Jul 28, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon.com (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?$16.42Jul 26, 20:15 UTC
- REWARD$4.47Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Procter & Gamble say "Currency" during earnings call?$94.00Jul 25, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Procter & Gamble say "Portfolio" during earnings call?$96.60Jul 25, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Procter & Gamble say "Supply" during earnings call?$48.04Jul 25, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Procter & Gamble say "Innovation" 10+ times during earnings call?$71.57Jul 25, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Procter & Gamble say "Consumer" 10+ times during earnings call?$19.18Jul 25, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Procter & Gamble say "Consumer" 10+ times during earnings call?$24.51Jul 25, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Procter & Gamble say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call?$36.40Jul 25, 07:08 UTC
- REWARD$17.54Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$977.00Jul 24, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Daniel Nokovich finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$58.00Jul 24, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by July 31?$452.33Jul 24, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Verizon say "America" during earnings call?$41.00Jul 24, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill American Express say "Fiscal" 10+ times during earnings call?$32.75Jul 24, 15:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Verizon say "Fiber" during earnings call?$224.20Jul 24, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Verizon say "Growth" 5+ times during earnings call?$125.00Jul 24, 14:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$5.7K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
Jun 13, 00:00 UTC → Jun 12, 23:52 UTC
- BUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?$5.7K@97¢Jun 12, 23:52 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
32 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
$5.7K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $120.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 23:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.